The claim 'people born after 1990 will retire after the age of 65' lacks rigorous data support: demographers

Since China announced its commitment to gradually raising the retirement age in a flexible and voluntarily manner, which is currently one of the lowest levels globally, many have hailed the policy as it allows people to work for more years in line with longer life expectancy. However, others remain skeptical.

One line of popular speculation online is that individuals born after 1990 may have to retire at the age of 65. Another common belief is that a delayed retirement would mean delayed access to pensions.

Gradually raising the retirement age in a prudent and orderly manner based on the principles of "voluntary participation with appropriate flexibility" was outlined in the Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization, which was adopted at the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee.

The varied opinions on raising the retirement age are understandable, as each group has their own working status and lifestyle, which explains why the resolution highlights the principles of "voluntary participation with appropriate flexibility", Song Jian, a demographer from the Center for Population and Development Studies of the Renmin University of China told the Global Times on Thursday.

While acknowledging concerns of some people, especially the young, about uncertainties regarding the future, it is important to recognize that increasing the retirement age is not an overnight decision, but was proposed years ago since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012 and included in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), Song said.

Over the years, departments across all levels in the country have been considering how best to take small steps to raise the retirement age, while to provide flexibility, tailor policies for different groups, consider all factors, and make comprehensive plans, Song said.

The prediction that "regardless of gender, people born after 1990 will retire after the age of 65" lacks rigorous data support and does not have much reference value, Yuan Xin, deputy head of the China Population Association and a demographer from Nankai University in Tianjin, said, criticizing this point of view.

Yuan told the Global Times the determination of retirement age is a multifaceted socio-economic issue that requires careful consideration and the balancing of numerous factors. "The introduction of social policies should adhere to the basic principle that the smaller the impact and fluctuations on society and individuals, the better."

If the retirement age is suddenly raised from 60 to 62 within a year, it means that the labor market will suddenly increase by 30 to 40 million people. That would place excessive pressure on employment opportunities, he explained.

The same goes for individual retirees. If a person is expected to retire on January 1 next year, and the policy requires a two-month delay in retirement, this person is likely to accept it, but if suddenly the person was informed to delay retirement for two years, he may feel the change is very abrupt, Yuan said.

Currently, the average life expectancy of Chinese people has reached over 78 years, yet the retirement age remains one of the lowest in the world - 60 for men, 55 for women in white-collar jobs, and 50 for working-class women.

The current retirement age was set more than 70 years ago, when the average life expectancy of Chinese people was only about 45 years. Now it has reached 78.2 years. An unchanged retirement age cannot catch up with the current demographic and economic situations in an era of longevity, demographers said.

"People need actively adapt the fact we are already in a moderately ageing society. There is no going back to a young or maturing society," Yuan said.

From the perspective of aging speed, from 2000 to the present, the population of people aged 60 and above in China has increased from 130 million to nearly 300 million, with their proportion rising from 10 percent to over 21 percent, marking China's entry into a moderately aged society.

It is estimated that by 2035, when modernization is basically achieved, the elderly population will exceed 400 million, making up more than 30 percent of the population, entering the stage of a heavily aged society. By the middle of this century, the elderly population is expected to peak at 520 million, with the proportion surpassing 40 percent, marking the transition to a super-aged society, according to data provided by Yuan.

"It is necessary to recognize that elderly people are not a burden to society, but a potential social wealth. Delaying their retirement in a voluntarily basis would enable some who would like to choose longer period of time to create wealth," the demographer said.

As an individual nears retirement age, you may find yourself reaching a career ceiling, with limited opportunities for advancement and no potential for increased income. The fear of retirement tends to increase for those on the cusp of retirement, Song added.

Some voices also explained that the country is seeking to raise the retirement age because the current level pension cannot make ends meet. Yuan explained that delaying retirement or not, this pension issue will come eventually. This is caused by the contradiction between system design and changes in population structure.

Following the same pattern globally, the country's pension insurance system is also built on the basis of a young and adult society, but as aging becomes more and more severe, there are more and more people receiving pension and fewer and fewer people contribute to the pool, a reform on pension system is necessary, Yuan noted.

In recent years, China has been continuously reforming its pension system, focusing on urban-rural integration and ensuring that a wider population can enjoy a decent quality of life in retirement, Song told the Global Times.

Yuan described the current pension system in China as being supported by three pillars: the government provides basic pension insurance, enterprise annuities and occupational annuities form supplementary pension funds, and individual pension accounts, savings, and commercial insurance serve as the main pillar.

"We individuals are primarily responsible for taking care of our own retirement. One should have a full understanding and mental preparation for this," Yuan noted.

China's goodwill and patience toward the Philippines are not limitless: Global Times editorial

After the Philippines repeatedly denied the "Gentleman's Agreement" and was later refuted by China with solid evidence, Manila has started a new political performance. On Wednesday, around 200 people on board five commercial fishing vessels set off from the Philippines, sailing toward the waters of Huangyan Dao under the banner of "defending rights," with an expected arrival on Thursday. The Philippine government has dispatched coast guard ships to escort this so-called "civilian fleet," and some Western media outlets have quickly picked up the story. This well-coordinated and professional approach is something we have seen in several previous incidents where the Philippines has stirred up trouble in the South China Sea.

Before departing, the Philippine Coast Guard deliberately emphasized that they have "nothing to do with the Philippine government," while the organizers loudly proclaimed their actions to be "civilian" and "peaceful." Such strenuous preparation has just given themselves away, revealing they know well that the move to challenge Huangyan Dao is neither a civilian action nor a peaceful one. What they are truly doing is using Philippine "fishermen" as a backdrop to provoke incidents, attempting to interfere with the normal law enforcement of the China Coast Guard and the regular fishing activities of Chinese fishermen. At the same time, they aim to gain sympathy from the international community through Western media, smear China, and incite a new round of friction or even confrontation between China and the Philippines at Huangyan Dao.

Noticeably, the so-called "civilian organization" behind this activity is far from being genuinely civilian. Its spokesperson previously publicly stated that all of the organization's activities are supported by the Philippine military. Additionally, media reports have revealed that this organization is funded by relevant American institutions. Therefore, this show is actually another act in the US' Project Myoushu in the South China Sea. Through this project, the US aims to increase its interference in the South China Sea situation, smear the law-enforcement actions of the China Coast Guard, encourage relevant countries in the South China Sea region to adopt a tough stance against China, and undermine the peaceful situation that China and other regional countries have been striving to establish. Thus, although this organization deliberately downplays its political nature on its website, it is essentially a business deal between Filipino politicians and Washington.

Huangyan Dao has always been China's territory. China has indisputable sovereignty over Huangyan Dao and its adjacent waters. China, as a party with absolute advantages in all aspects, has shown enough goodwill and patience toward the Philippines. China made a goodwill arrangement in 2016 for Filipino fishermen to fish with a small number of small fishing boats in the adjacent waters of Huangyan Dao, while China continues to oversee and monitor relevant activities of the Filipino fishermen in accordance with law. China has shown its utmost patience and tolerance toward the Philippines.

On one hand, the current Philippine government has accepted China's goodwill arrangement, but on the other hand, it greedily attempts to seize more benefits. It has used the urgent desire of the US to intervene in the South China Sea situation to support itself. China has always been against bullying small countries by big powers, but it will not accept any political blackmail from any country. Regarding the Philippines' show on Huangyan Dao, China has issued a clear warning: "If the Philippines abuses China's goodwill and infringes upon China's territorial sovereignty and jurisdiction, we will defend our rights and take countermeasures in accordance with the law. Relevant responsibilities and consequences shall be borne solely by the Philippines." China has always been low-key in its actions, but it will follow through with its words. Manila should understand and take in the meaning and weight of these words.

When Global Times reporters interviewed locals in the Philippines not long ago, many fishermen expressed unwillingness to participate in the Philippines' provocative actions against China. Even some US media outlets discovered during on-site interviews in the Philippines that local farmers praised a China-funded irrigation project. The outcome of the latest performance on Huangyan Dao is not difficult to predict: It will not have any impact on China's normal exercise of sovereignty on Huangyan Dao, but will only show the international community another act of lack of credibility by Manila. Not only does China see this clearly, but regional countries and the international community also see it very clearly. The current situation in the South China Sea is generally stable, and peace and cooperation are the mainstream in the region. In response to Manila's adventurism, other ASEAN countries have in general kept their distance.

There is an ancient Chinese saying: "A gentleman's acquaintance is as light as water, and a villain's acquaintance is as sweet as alcohol." Manila should carefully consider who is applauding its show in the South China Sea, giving it one sugar cube after another, and where these things that do not belong to it will ultimately push it.

US, S.Korea new ‘overcapacity’ hype about China's solar panels aims to curb China’s tech devt, industrial upgrading

Chinese experts said on Monday that reported cooperation between South Korea and the US to address so-called "excess capacity" in China's photovoltaic (PV) industry is part of the strategic narrative for Western countries to hype "overcapacity" in China's new-energy vehicles, lithium battery and PV sector, which is aimed at curbing China's technological development and industrial upgrading. 

Observers said that the so-called spillover effect of China's "excessive production" is an excuse fabricated by some US politicians out of political motives, amid the US crackdown on Chinese PV companies.

The response came after a South Korean report, which said that senior diplomats from South Korea and the US are cooperating to address the issue of "excess capacity" in China's PV industry, in order to protect industries of both countries from the negative impact brought by overproduction of Chinese solar energy products.

The rapid growth of China's PV-related exports has made many countries more and more anxious. Officials from South Korea and the US on April 30 discussed the need for a joint response to potential ramifications from the so-called "overcapacity" in China's solar industry during talks on energy security in Houston, Texas, South Korea's Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs Kim Hee-sang was quoted as saying this in a report from the Yonhap News Agency.

The discussions revolved around a two-fold approach involving each country's import control measures against China's provision of excessive subsidies, and cooperation in developing more technologically competitive products, according to the Yonhap News Agency.

The move shows that the US and South Korea are hyping "overcapacity" rhetoric targeting China's solar industry in a bid to replace China's industry with their own producers, Han Bing, an expert at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Monday.

Han said that the US and South Korea believe that they will create difficulties for China's PV firms to expand abroad by imposing trade barriers.

Experts called for the South Korean side to not follow the US in adopting strict economic and trade restrictions against China, saying that such an approach will only backfire on the country itself, with local businesses and ordinary people paying the price.

It's undeniable that China's capacity and technological breakthroughs in the clean energy sector have become powerful engines driving the global energy transition, experts said. 

According to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency, average kilowatt-hour cost of global wind power and photovoltaic power generation have decreased by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively in the past decade, a large part of which is attributed to China's innovation, manufacturing and engineering. 

China's PV production capacity represents nearly 90 percent of the world's total, industry data show. 

Experts praised the efforts made by Chinese companies in increasing research and development efforts to develop new PV cell techniques that could improve efficiency and reduce costs.

China is the world's renewables powerhouse. The country accounts for almost 60 percent of the new renewable capacity expected to become operational globally by 2028. China's role is critical in reaching the global goal of tripling renewables because the country is expected to install more than half of the new capacity required globally by 2030, according to a report by the International Energy Agency.

Chinese PV products have strong competitiveness, thanks to the accumulation of technology and production capacity. Exports have contributed to cost declines and helped solar PV to become the most affordable electricity generation technology, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Monday.

Chinese equities continue rebound amid return of global capital

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index at one point surged 0.2 percent to 3,163.14 points in Friday's morning trading session, a record high this year. It also represents an over 20-percent jump from the low point of 2,635.09 on February 5, which observers said means that the stocks in the Shanghai bourse are "entering a technical bull market." 

In early May, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also showed signs of marching into a technical bull market. Analysts said the rally of Chinese stocks underscored a continued warming of investors' sentiment as well as the return of global capital into a market which they deem very promising but has been low valued. The stepped-up recovery of the world's second-largest economy is also giving a leg-up to the capital market rebound, they noted. 

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,154.55 on Friday, standing above the 3,100-mark for six consecutive trading days. The sustained surge was also partly thanks to the inflow of northbound funds, which has shown substantial net inflow in recent days.

On April 26, the inflow of northbound funds hit 22.449 billion yuan ($3.11 billion) marking a new high since the launch of the Stock Connect Program. The inflow of northbound funds also reached 10 billion yuan on April 29 and May 6, reflecting an across-the-board interest in investing in Chinese equities. 

Data from financial website eastmoney.com shows that northbound funds recorded a net inflow of 87.6 billion yuan to date this year, or more than twice last year's reading. 

"First, there's a palpable improvement in investors' mood from January to May, amid more measures to stabilize the market. Second, global capital is now returning to the Chinese market after withdrawing from the US, Europe and Japanese markets," Yang Delong, chief economist at Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund, told the Global Times on Friday. 

The world's financial institutions have reportedly been expanding their footprint in China. An HSBC Holdings Plc report said that more than 90 percent of emerging market funds are adding back their positions in the currently underweight A shares. A Bloomberg report quoted analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc as saying that there's "a fear of missing out" on the opportunities in Chinese equities building up among traders. 

Analysts noted that the stronger US dollar, coupled with the low valuation of Chinese equities, is one of the reasons behind the inflow of foreign capital. Yang also took note of China's positive economic fundamentals and the government's supportive measures, which have all helped bolster market confidence. 

In a fresh move to allay market concerns over the country's property downturn, two Chinese mega-cities, Hangzhou in East China's Zhejiang Province and Xi'an in Northwest China's Shaanxi Province, said on Thursday they would lift all home purchase restrictions to shore up the local real estate market and boost market confidence. This follows similar moves recently in other big cities like Chengdu, Shenzhen and Beijing.

"The slow recovery of the real estate sector has weighed on the outlook of the Chinese economy, so those measures will further strengthen investors' expectations of the robust economic recovery streak," Yang said. 

He stressed that the measures addressing the property sector are being carried out in parallel with policies for the capital market, and could therefore constitute a "two-pronged approach" to shore up the A-share market. 

Since the beginning of this year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the country's top securities regulator, has been taking a series of sweeping measures to boost market confidence, stabilize expectations and ensure the long-term healthy and sound development of the capital market. 

In April, CSRC published rules to regulate mutual fund trading fees, set to take effect on July 1, 2024. The rules aim to enhance the management of securities trading fees, standardize the allocation of trading commissions by fund managers and safeguard the legal rights of fund shareholders, the CSRC said.

CSRC published on Friday a revised rule intensifying oversight on listed companies, calling for a more stringent risk control mechanism and more transparent information disclosure. Listed companies should better focus on main businesses to ensure investor rights protection and high-quality development.

‘China hands’ share their stories, insights on China’s path

The recent World Conference on China Studies - Shanghai Forum, which concluded on November 24, was one of the largest gatherings of global "China hands." At the two-day forum, more than 400 Chinese and foreign scholars specializing or interested in China studies discussed their insights on Chinese civilization and China's path of development, as well as their impacts on the current global landscape.

During the forum, some of the overseas scholars, including winners of the 2023 Award for Distinguished Contributions to China Studies, shared their personal China experiences, observations, and understandings of Chinese civilization and China's path with the Global Times.

These "China hands" are witnesses to China's modernization and social development, and play an important role as bridges that link China and the world, observers told the Global Times on Monday.

Witnesses and bridges

The forum announced the winners of the 2023 Award for Distinguished Contributions to China Studies on November 24. They included Timothy Brook, professor emeritus at Department of History, University of British Columbia, Baik Young-seo, professor emeritus at Yonsei University, and Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.
Brook and Baik participated in the in-person forum in Shanghai. At an interview on November 23, Brook said that Shanghai "makes him jump." "The Shanghai of today is completely different from that of the 1970s," he told the media in fluent Putonghua. "The city reminds me of New York when I look out of my hotel at the Bund."

Shanghai was one of the starting places that sparked Brook's relationship with China. In 1974, then 23-year-old Brook studied ancient Chinese history and literature at Fudan University as one of the earliest young Canadians to come to China as exchange students. At Fudan, he developed a keen interest in China's Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), and later started his decades of research in Chinese history, particularly into the Ming Dynasty history.

At the forum venue by the Huangpu River, Brook said although he has visited Shanghai many times over the years, he is quite impressed by the development of China's most modernized metropolis during each visit. "I found that Shanghai has 'grown up' to a degree that I've never seen before," he said, as if describing an old friend.

Brook is hailed as one of the best storytellers among North American historians. His many books focusing on China during the period of the Ming Dynasty, such as The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China, open a window for international readers to learn more about Chinese history and civilization.

"I keep writing books about China in order to increase the outside world's understanding of China," Brook told the Global Times.

Brook is among the expanding pool of international scholars in China studies who have, in recent decades, personally experienced China's rapid path to development.
Rachel Murphy, who prefers to go by her Chinese name "Rui Xue (auspicious snow in a literal translation)" in China, was a guest speaker at the forum. As a Chinese Development and Society professor at the University of Oxford and former president of the British Association for Chinese Studies, she has been engaged in China-related research, exploring China's social and cultural changes caused by urbanization, educational development, demographic transition, and state policies.

During the last 20 years, Murphy has travelled to many villages, towns, and cities across China. Her long-term fieldwork makes her an old "China hand."

Murphy marveled at China's tremendous development, especially in the countryside. "China's urbanization is progressing very fast," she told the Global Times during the forum. "The book I wrote [about rural China] before is out of date now."

Murphy shared that a week ahead of the forum, she visited several villages in Anhui Provinces, where she had been to a few years before. She was surprised by the great changes in communication in rural China.

Wi-Fi availability is now commonplace in many villages, enabling "left-behind" children to stay in contact with their migrant worker parents through frequent video calls, said Murphy. She was surprised to see many elderly women like to share their rural lives on Douyin (the Chinese version of TikTok).

"The speed of technological changes [in China] is truly amazing," Murphy said in Putonghua. "Rural areas included, the ubiquitous nature of 'connection' [across China] is a remarkable achievement."

Among the China studies scholars who attended the forum in Shanghai, Michael Crook, a Chinese Government Friendship Award winner, is a familiar "China hand" to many Chinese people.

Crook's family has been profoundly and closely connected to China. Six generations of his family have worked and lived in China. Born and raised in Beijing, Crook has devoted decades to education in China. Now he teaches children from expatriate families in Beijing Chinese history and culture, acting as a bridge between people in China and the West, especially among the younger generation.

During the forum, Crook told Chinese media that he believes Chinese and Western cultures have their own merits. "They can learn from each other," he said.

A path worthy of reference

Crook was a guest speaker at a sub-forum being held during the Shanghai Forum on November 24. The theme of the sub-forum was "Explorations: Chinese Modernization and China's Path."

Under this theme, many participants of the sub-forum shared their understanding of China's path to modernization, and some highlights of China's path worthy of reference for other countries.

China is a good example of integrating its own development with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNDGs), said economist Ranee Jayamaha, lead consultant for the South Asia-World Bank Group.

She offered how China has launched the Initiative for Belt and Road Partnership on Green Development together with 31 countries, and closely aligned the initiative with the needs of global green development by investing in renewable energy and adopting comprehensive pollution reduction measures as an example.

This is a good story of China's success in positively influencing world development, Jayamaha commented.

Crook mentioned China's ethnic policies, which he thinks can be referenced by multi-ethnic countries.

In a speech he delivered at the sub-forum, Crook recalled his visit to a school in China's Xizang Autonomous Region in May. The school teaches both Putonghua and Tibetan, and entirely permissible for the latter to be spoken in class. The small case shows China respects and supports its ethnic minorities at the national level, said Crook.

With China's rise and its growing international influence, many countries, especially those in the Global South, are interested in Chine's development, and are looking forward to learning from China's experiences, many attendees of the forum told the Global Times.

And these contemporary "China hands" are making efforts to know more about China, exploring China's development path and sharing their observations and understandings with the world.

China is on a multi-dimensional path of development, Josette Altmann-Borbón, secretary general of Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences, said in a speech delivered at the forum's opening ceremony on November 24.

We should fully understand the important role China plays on the global stage, she noted.

Significant potential remains in China’s economic growth and tech advancements

Currently, some observers assert that China's economic growth has peaked, drawing parallels to Japan's situation in the 1990s. This implies that China may face a 30-year stagnation, potentially missing the opportunity to surpass the size of the US economy. However, this perspective is a misconception, as it interprets China's cyclical adjustments as indicative of a long-term economic downturn.

In reality, the Chinese government is working toward multiple objectives simultaneously, with economic growth rate being just one of them. While China has set lower goal of economic growth compared with the past, this shift has also created more opportunities to advance other goals. China's economic growth continues to hold significant potential.

China's potential economic growth rate is still estimated to be around 5.5 percent, if not higher. This is attributed to China's high current savings rate, which stands at 45 percent of its GDP. In essence, this substantial savings volume, equivalent to 45 percent of its GDP, will stimulate investment and subsequently fuel growth.

While there is ample opportunity for infrastructure investment in China, domestic investment focus extends beyond just infrastructure. The need for infrastructure improvement in cities located in the central and western regions highlights the room and potential for further infrastructure investments growth.

China is currently increasing its investments in labor productivity. A new concept known as "new quality productive forces" has emerged in China. By fostering these new quality productive forces, there is potential to enhance total factor productivity and enhance the efficiency of overall economic development. This trend partly accounts for the decrease in foreign investment in China, as the country's capital is currently abundant.

In terms of China's savings and consumption, there are also misconceptions. A pivotal moment occurred in 2010. Prior to this year, China experienced a rapid increase in its savings rate, partially attributed to rising incomes. Additionally, excessive exports contributed to significant savings accumulation among the residents, resulting in a higher savings rate and a decline in the consumption ratio.

However, since 2010, the proportion of consumption has actually increased significantly, driven by a strong preference for spending among the population. In fact, between 2010 and 2019, consumption growth in China surpassed income growth over the nine-year period, resulting in a notable increase in the contribution of consumption to the Chinese economy.

Throughout the three-year span of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth has slowed, at the same time, the pace of consumer spending growth also slowed. Nevertheless, in 2023, consumption growth contributed to 82 percent of the total GDP growth, marking a notably high proportion. It is imperative to remain patient concerning the expansion of consumption in China.

There is a misconception that China lacks consumption at present. In my opinion, the current issue in China is more related to investment rather than consumption. Examining China's economic performance last year, weak exports have had a certain impact, but another contributing factor is the insufficient investment. The government is implementing measures to boost investment, which is expected to spur economic growth.

China's impressive progress in technology is noteworthy. Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EV), and renewable energy are moving forward rapidly. During a recent visit to iFlytek in Hefei, East China's Anhui Province, I observed their highly advanced AI model development, which is nearing the level of the ChatGPT model introduced just six months ago.

In the realm of AI applications, China has surged ahead of many countries and even outpaced the US in certain domains. Intelligent connected vehicles serve as a prime example of this advancement. This year, China plans to expand real world testing for autonomous driving systems. Currently, these systems are limited to specific areas. While some regions in the US are just beginning road trials, China is poised to expand its autonomous driving testing this year. This signifies a crucial year for China's intelligent connected vehicles and for the worldwide advancement of this technology.

In addition to strengthening its advantages in the aforementioned technological fields, China is also at the forefront in various areas. When it comes to cutting-edge technologies for the future, China leads in fields like quantum computing, quantum communication, fusion technology, and more.

I anticipate that the next three decades will be the most exhilarating period in China's history. The last time China held a prominent position as a global technology leader was during the Song Dynasty about a thousand years ago. I am confident that in the next thirty years, China will once again ascend to the peak of global technological advancement.

The article was compiled from a speech of Yao Yang, economist and Boya chair professor at Peking University, at the Ambassador Round Table Dialogue on "China's Economic Outlook" in Beijing on Friday.

Taking group photo

Members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) pose for a group photo after the second plenary meeting of the second session of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC was held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 7, 2024. Photo: cnsphoto

China plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds to propel economic growth: Premier Li Qiang

China plans to systematically address funding shortages facing some major projects in the course of advancing the national rejuvenation, and it will issue ultra-long special treasury bonds starting this year and over each of the next several years, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in his Government Work Report delivered to the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC) on Tuesday.

The proceeds from the bond issuance will be used to implement major national strategies and build up security capacity in key areas. One trillion yuan ($139 billion) of such bonds will be issued in 2024, read the report.

“Additional government investment is needed in many sectors this year. This means that we should further improve the structure of government spending, ensure sufficient funding for major national strategic tasks and efforts to meet the people’s basic living needs, and strictly control general expenditures,” Li said.

“We should appropriately enhance the intensity of our proactive fiscal policy and improve its quality and effectiveness,” Li stressed.

China will set the deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2024 at 3 percent and the government deficit at 4.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 180 billion yuan over the 2023 budget figure.

“It is projected that fiscal revenue will continue to grow in 2024 and we will also have funds transferred from other sources; on this basis, general public expenditures in the government budget are projected to reach 28.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan over last year,” Li said.

This year, 3.9 trillion yuan of special-purpose bonds for local governments will be issued, an increase of 100 billion yuan over last year, according to the Government Work Report.

Ultra-long special treasury bonds are a fiscal policy instrument geared towards the long haul. Given their extended maturity, the bonds are predominantly directed towards foundational, large-scale infrastructure projects that address deficiencies and reinforce long-term capabilities, experts said.

This year’s fiscal policy, including the issuance of the ultra-long special treasury bonds, is poised to play a crucial role in supporting stable economic operations and will provide financial backing for some of the key projects in the process of national rejuvenation and the construction of a great country, Yang Chang, chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Issuing the long-term treasury bonds can help avoid large fluctuations in fiscal expenditures. This is particularly important given the current challenges faced by some local governments, which lack stable financial means to promote economic development, especially amid the structural adjustment in local debt and the real estate sector, Tian Yun, an economist based in Beijing told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Moreover, China's long-term government bonds are relatively popular among investors. China should take advantage of the current low inflation and low financing costs to ramp up their issuance, Tian said.

“Considering the current risks domestically and internationally, we should be comprehensively prepared. The government could expedite the issuance of the one-trillion-yuan ultra-long special treasury bonds,” Tian said.

In 2023, an additional one trillion yuan of special treasury bonds was issued to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and build up capacity for disaster prevention, mitigation and relief.

Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the second session of the 14th NPC, told at a press conference on Monday that the one-trillion-yuan treasury bond issuance for 2023 has been fully allocated, supporting over 15,000 projects. It will effectively ensure and improve the livelihoods of the people in disaster-affected areas.

N.China’s Baotou aims to expand rare-earth industrial scale to over $14 billion in 2024

Baotou, North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which holds over 80 percent of the nation's rare-earth reserves, aims to accelerate rare-earth new material industry and application during 2024. 

According to guidelines issued by the municipal government, Baotou aims to expand the rare-earth industrial scale to 100 billion yuan ($14.08 billion) and establish itself as China's largest rare-earth new material base and the world's leading rare-earth application center, media outlet thepaper.cn reported on Thursday.  

Baotou possesses 83.7 percent of China's rare-earth reserves, accounting for 37.8 percent of the global reserves, according to the report.

According to the guidelines, Baotou will increase the production capacity of rare-earth raw materials, consolidating the city’s position as the world's largest supplier. 

It also emphasizes the need to expand Baotou’s rare-earth magnetic materials industry with increased research and development efforts for high-performance magnetic materials. 

The application of rare earths in various industries should be expanded and deepened, including the development of permanent magnet motors for industrial energy efficient motors, wind power generators, electric motors for new energy vehicles, and specialized motors for robots. 

The city will also step up efforts to accelerate the construction of a rare-earth industry intellectual property operation center and a rare-earth product testing center. The goal is to add 150 new rare-earth patents within the year and lead or participate in the development of three national standards and four industry standards, according to the report, citing the guideline. 

The issuance of the guidelines comes as China’s State Council, the country’s cabinet, in October issued a document to develop Baotou into the largest rare-earth new materials base in China and a globally leading rare-earth application base. 

The document proposed strengthening the development and utilization of strategic resources such as rare earths in North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This includes supporting systematic exploration and evaluation, protective development, high-quality utilization, and standardized management of strategic mineral resources in Inner Mongolia.

China has been placing increased importance on the high-quality development of the rare-earth sector.

The State Council stressed at an executive meeting in November that rare earths are strategic mineral resources. It called for enhanced efforts to coordinate the exploration, development, utilization and standardized management of rare earths, to promote the development and application of a new generation of green, efficient mining and related technologies.

Efforts should also be made to crack down on illegal mining and environmental damage, while promoting intelligent and green development of the country's rare earths, according to the meeting.