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Editor's Note:

Houthi rebels in Yemen said, on Monday, that they attacked a US ship in the Gulf of Aden after US launched airstrikes on Houthis. The situation in the Red Sea has grown increasingly tense in recent weeks, showing the spillover effect of the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip. What will possibly happen next? Is it possible for a larger conflict to happen in the Middle East? How will new tensions affect the ongoing Palestine-Israel conflict? Global Times reporters Xie Wenting and Bai Yunyi (GT) spoke with Yezid Sayigh (Sayigh), a senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, on these and other pertinent issues.

GT: The US has launched another airstrike on Houthis in Yemen on Friday. How do you predict the future development of the situation in the Middle East?  How do you assess the possibility of the eruption of a larger conflict that will involve more parties?

Sayigh: The fact that the US is taking direct military action crosses a certain threshold. So far, the US has taken a deterrent posture against Iran and Hezbollah, and so on. But it hasn't taken on a major direct combat role. The situation in which they get involved in Yemen, with air attacks on the Houthis, is going to be more complicated.

The Houthis are in a much stronger position than forces like the Syrian militias or even Iraqi militias in some respects. Their impact on Red Sea shipping is potentially more major for the US to get directly involved militarily.

The question then is, what happens next? If the Houthis retaliate and hit back, does the US then escalate its move? How far will they go? Already, the US is increasing the risk of direct confrontation with Iran. If the Houthis are not deterred and continue their attacks, will the US threaten Iran or escalate military action against the Houthis? Both options are highly risky and undesirable.

I think the risk of a wider war is obviously increasing. However, at the same time, I think that the key parties will not go beyond a certain point into direct confrontation. At the same time, they have already started what we call an escalation spiral.

But the US is in a very risky situation, and it increasingly looks as though it is entering the war on the side of Israel as well. None of this is helpful for their strategic position, and none of this is helpful for the Biden administration. President Biden is starting the election year while possibly starting a new war in the Middle East. Every American president so far for the last 30 years has launched a war in the Middle East: George Bush Senior, Bill Clinton, George Bush Junior, and Obama in different ways. Trump also engaged to some extent. Now we have Biden risking yet another American war in the Middle East after having pulled out of Afghanistan. 

I think all of this is politically very damaging for the US. But right now, the situation in the Red Sea is partly because Biden decided to support Israel in a certain way by signaling military support - both direct military assistance to Israel and by deploying his naval fleets in the Mediterranean. He has already, in a way, signaled military deterrence that encouraged Iran to use military deterrence. Biden, in a way, started this escalation spiral from the beginning with his immediate deployment of military assets to the Mediterranean. 

GT: What kind of incident would be a trigger point for a direct confrontation between the US and Iran? How do you assess the likelihood of such confrontation happening?

Sayigh: I think that the direct use of more technologically advanced missiles by the Houthis against US navy ships in the Red Sea could be perceived by the US as a qualitative shift. This could lead the US to realize that bombing more Houthi targets is pointless unless it engages in large-scale bombings, but this is problematic. Alternatively, it may choose to directly threaten Iran, which is also problematic. 

It is difficult to say whether such a confrontation is likely or not. On one side, Biden has embarked on a path which, in order to maintain credibility, he must continue on a course that raises the risk of confrontation. I think because we're now talking about Red Sea shipping and the threat to global trade, which the US government has basically said it's going to protect, it's harder for Biden to retreat. 

GT: How long do you think the current situation of disrupted shipping in the Red Sea will last?  Is it possible for the US to assert de facto control over the Red Sea under the pretext of counterterrorism?

Sayigh: The US cannot afford, in terms of their strategic credibility, to allow the Houthis to continue this nonstop for much longer. But how can the US stop it? This is a more difficult question. They would have to militarily punish the Houthis enough for them to say the pain is too great and they must stop. But the Houthis can probably take a lot of damage before they stop. 

It is interesting to think back to the 1980s when Iraq and Iran engaged in attacks on shipping in the Gulf in an attempt to disrupt each other's oil shipments and coerce one another into ending the war. Later the US intervened and deployed a substantial naval presence.

Are we looking at the same scenario today? Maybe. But let's remember that in the 1980s, the shipping war lasted for a very long time. It involved a major US deployment, and it wasn't easy to stop. So, I think it's a difficult challenge for them today. They're fighting the Houthis, who of course, are much weaker than Iran and Iraq. But in a way, they're also a difficult target because they're a poor army already. It's not like you're attacking a country that has a lot to lose. There aren't many high-value targets that can be struck if the US attacks the airport, oil refineries, or oil tankers, for example. The US is causing misery for one of the poorest nations on earth, where 80 percent of people depend on food supplied by the United Nations. What is the US going to do? Is it going to increase the food crisis, energy crisis, and poverty crisis of a country that is already devastated by war? 

The options are all very bad, and lack obvious military solutions. The risk for the US is that Biden will have to increase airstrikes from 10 to 20, and then to 40. This escalation appears to be the start of a new US war in the Middle East, which poses a significant problem for a president who is facing elections this year. The costs to start a war in the Middle East are too high.

GT: Considering the recent developments in the Middle East, how long do you think the conflict between Israel and Hamas will continue, and in which direction is it likely to evolve?

Sayigh: All I anticipate for Israel and Palestine is that the Israeli combat in Gaza will continue for many more months to come. For now, there is no meaningful Western pressure on Israel to change its strategy. The Western response, which disregarded international humanitarian law and the rules of war, also signifies a moment of change in world history. The liberal order that the West claims to protect and uphold since 1945 has been abandoned by the West itself. 

But I think that Western governments won't change their policy. This is because the US is going through a presidential election, and no president in the US is going to confront Israel in an election year. I believe this remains the case.

I think the one thing that is happening right now, which is really interesting, is the South Africa's genocide case against Israel in the International Criminal Court. This is a significant diplomatic act. It won't force Israel to stop what it's doing, but if the court issues any kind of ruling against Israel, I think that will be very significant for public opinion. 

The bottom line is, I think, Israel will continue its military operations, and as long as Western governments allow this, the fighting will continue and the damage to Western credibility in the rest of the world will continue.

Editor's Note:

The end of the year and the start of a new one is a time for reflection and anticipation. Throughout 2023, the Chinese society has undergone various developments and changes, behind which manifests the exploration and practice of Chinese path to modernization.

In light of this, the Global Times is launching a series that elaborates on this unique path through the stories of ordinary people's New Year wishes. These wishes serve as a window to the changes in and achievements of Chinese society as Chinese modernization has brought Chinese people more concrete consensus, a more vibrant countryside, more imaginative innovation, more balanced education, a more dignified old age with stronger security, and a more confident civilization. This shows that Chinese modernization is the prerequisite and driving force for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

This is the third installment in the "Wish List" series, sharing the story of a group of secondary school students in Foshan, South China's Guangdong Province, who made a wish to "let taikonauts enjoy fresh fish soup in space." With their yearning for the vast universe, and their pride in China's scientific and technological progress, they have planted exploratory seeds in their hearts to embark on a journey to the sea of stars, through continuous scientific experiments that attempt to turn their creative ideas into reality. Their ambitious dream displays a country with more imaginative innovation propelled by Chinese modernization.
Li Shiyi often has a dream that is both fantastic and real. In the dream, her fish "fly" in the zero-gravity environment of space.

Nearly every day after school, the 17-year-old would go to the lab and check on the school of marlins in their artificial incubators, watching them swim nimbly in the sand and water, or lie quietly on the transparent walls of the incubators.

She often imagined that one day, instead of being placed in the school lab, the incubator would be sent to China's Tiangong Space Station. At an altitude of 400,000 meters above the earth, the carefully raised marlins would eventually appear on Taikonauts' dinner table.

Li has taken the first step toward fulfilling her dream. At the First International Space Science and Scientific Payload Competition (ISSSP) in May this year, Li and four other students shared their project of "experimental study on the cultivation of multiple generations of marlin in the space station," and won the bronze prize.

According to the ISSSP organizers, some of the winning projects selected through the competition will be recommended as candidates for a flight to the Tiangong Space Station, the International Space Station, and other scientific satellites.

"We are looking forward to seeing our experimental project would be adopted," Li told the Global Times with excitement. "I really hope that our taikonauts will enjoy fresh fish soup in China's space station."
'Send marlins to China's space station'

The first ISSSP, organized by the Beijing Institute of Technology, the Chinese Institute of Electronics, the International Academy of Astronautics, the China Space Foundation, and the Chinese Society of Astronautics, was the first-ever international space competition in China to gather and cultivate global talents and projects in space science and payload technology. It attracted students of all ages, and many participating teams submitted innovative experimental project ideas.

Li is a student at the Dali Senior High School (Dali) in Foshan. To select candidates for the ISSSP, in September 2022, when a new semester had just started, the school issued a space knowledge questionnaire to the freshmen, so as to discover the students' interests and their related knowledge in the field.

The enthusiasm of the students surprised Chen Hongyu, a physics teacher at Dali. He recalled that the school planned to select 10 candidates to form two teams for the ISSSP, and it received more than 200 completed questionnaires.

"Their enthusiasm for the competition was much higher than expected," said Chen, who also served as the leader of Dali's participating teams for the first ISSSP.

Li became one of the candidates. Always curious about the universe, Li said she hoped that by participating in this competition, she would make a small contribution to China's space industry.

Li had seen Shenzhou-13 crew member Wang Yaping introduced experiments on fish and rice cultivation through Tiangong Classroom lectures. The idea of "raising fish in space" jumped into the minds of Li and her teammates.

The team chose "cultivation of marlin in space station" as its experimental project for the competition after discussion. They learned that the marlin can adapt to a variety of environments, and it can be exposed to the surface of water for a long time as long as its body is kept hydrated. Moreover, the marlin is a nutritious and tasty fish, which can meet the nutritional needs of astronauts.

"Currently the taikonauts only eat vacuum-packed food, and that is not fresh enough. Fresh soups would make for a welcome change," Li told the Global Times. "We chose this project in the hope that if our taikonauts want to have soup in the space station, they will be able to enjoy fresh and delicious fish soup."

An experiment of raising fish began. The team spent weeks designing and making the marlin incubator. Under the guidance of Chen and other teachers at the school, it modified the incubator a dozen times, installing several devices including water inlets and outlets, vents, an oxygen balance device, and an automatic feeder.

Although the cultivation was carried out as a "controlled pre-experiment" due to limited conditions, the team still designed many small details that took the space environment into account, such as microgravity and certain ionizing radiation conditions, Chen said.

Considering that marlins may float up in microgravity, they designed a rolling gauze device at the opening of the incubator, "to help the floating marlins return to the water and sand in the incubator," he told the Global Times.

It was a process of constant innovative problem-solving. One day in November 2022, when temperatures in Foshan plummeted, the team found that the marlins in the incubator had frozen to death overnight.

"We were all stunned," Chen recalled. He encouraged the shocked and discouraged team members to start afresh. This time, they took temperature into account, adding a temperature control device to the incubator.

On May 11, the ISSSP final gathered many young students full of imagination, curiosity, and scientific research spirit. Some participants shared their idea of inventing a snake-shaped robot that can detect and repair faults in the space station, and others shared a vision of planting roses in space for possible mutagenesis breeding, which they hoped would result in the production of precious rose essential oil.

As participants in the secondary school group, Li's team presented data and observations from several months of marlin-raising experience, and answered questions raised by on-site experts. One of the experts asked the team what it would do with the leftover fish bones, Li said. "And we answered: that is exactly what our school's next team is going to be looking into - how to handle the household waste in space."
'Turn waste into treasure'

As a national defense and aerospace education demonstration school, Dali attaches great importance to the cultivation of students' scientific and technological innovation abilities and interests, particularly in aerospace knowledge.

After class, the school organizes lectures given by academicians from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and interactive events like aerospace science and technology festivals are hosted, said the school's chemistry teacher Lai Jiajun. "At the festival, students are free to use the experimental materials provided by the school, and make some fun things from their imagination, such as air cannons, water rockets, and 'fire palms,'" Lai introduced.

Lai is leading Dali's three participating teams for the second ISSSP, which he said is in the local trial phase. Dali's three teams submitted experimental project ideas on the cultivations of cucumbers and herbs, and the handling of household waste in the space station. The teams joked that the household waste project is like an "after-sales service" born from the previous marlin project, on how to deal with household waste such as fish bones.

"Space resources are limited. It would be a great idea to recycle these resources and turn household waste into treasure," Lai told the Global Times. He shared that this project's team has done many experiments, and their efforts included putting various food scraps in different boxes for fermentation, observing the resulting liquid or gas, analyzing their composition, and considering the possible values of recycling them.

In the days spent with the team members, Lai said he has fully felt the active thinking of these 16- and 17-year-olds, as well as their abundant enthusiasm for science.

"At the beginning, they thought that technological innovation in a large country in fields like aerospace science is something too big and far away," said Lai. "As they continued to put forward ideas and do experiments under the project, their imagination and enthusiasm for scientific inquiry were stimulated, and they gradually felt that they could really do something for these grand topics."
Ambitious journey commenced

"Our journey is the sea of stars!" This is an "advertising slogan" placed in prominent positions by many schools when they promote the ISSSP. It is also a very popular saying among China's Generation Z, and a heroic vision of numerous Chinese people, especially the young, for the Chinese nation for thousands of years to further explore the vast universe.

Behind their vision is China's rapid development of the space industry in recent years. In 2023 alone, China's space exploration has witnessed many highlights, such as the launch of manned spaceship Shenzhou-16, the first crewed mission of the application and development stage of China's first space station Tiangong, the milestone meeting of Shenzhou-14 and Shenzhou-15 taikonauts at the Tiangong, and the meeting of Shenzhou-16 and Shenzhou-17 crews, facilitating a space reunion for China's six taikonauts.

Many scientists and educators shared with the Global Times that China's young generation has more curiosity about scientific topics, a richer knowledge reserve, and a freer imagination. They noted that it is the great scientific and technological progress in various fields of the country in recent years that has given them confidence, enabling them to more actively and positively explore the world of science.

Scientist Yuan Lanfeng, associate research fellow at the Hefei National Research Center of Microscale Material Science, and deputy director of the Department of Science and Technology of Communication and Policy at the University of Science and Technology of China, is also an internet influencer popularizing science to millions of social media followers.

In an article published online in August 2022, Yuan mentioned a sharing session he had with some fifth- and seventh-graders on quantum topics.

Some of the questions the students raised during the session highly impressed Yuan: Since the quantum code cannot be cracked, what would we do if an enemy used the quantum code? The principle of a quantum computer is to use a quantum system to simulate a mathematical problem, so can we use a quantum system to simulate a physical system? Can the Chinese satellite Micius (Mozi) detect dark matter? …

"The children raised the best and deepest questions I've ever heard among their peers," Yuan praised in the article.

He told the Global Times that many of his followers are young people, who not only pay much attention to topics including scientific insight in quantum and nuclear fusion, but also are interested in discussions such as "the status of China's science and technology in the world" and "the science and technology gap between China and the US, or the respective advantages of the two countries."

"It is good to know that the Chinese youth have a strong interest in science," said Yuan. "It reflects China's new generation's better education and greater curiosity about the world, as well as the growing importance of scientific and technological innovation in China's economic, political, and social development."

They have witnessed China's scientific and technological leap in recent years, and have started to plant seeds of "the sea of stars" in their hearts during their in-person practice of trying to gain a deeper understanding of the vast universe.

To explore the cosmos, developing the aerospace industry, and building China into a space power is China's eternal dream. The dream not only provides a solid guarantee for the grand goal of the Chinese path to modernization, but also gives Chinese youth a more imaginative spirit of innovation, and a grander aspiration.

Li shared her New Year's wishes for 2024 with the Global Times. One is to watch the launch of a Chinese spacecraft on site.

"The other wish is that our marlins will 'fly' further with the taikonauts," she smiled. "Maybe in one day, I can become a fellow traveler on the dream journey to the sea of stars."

The recent World Conference on China Studies - Shanghai Forum, which concluded on November 24, was one of the largest gatherings of global "China hands." At the two-day forum, more than 400 Chinese and foreign scholars specializing or interested in China studies discussed their insights on Chinese civilization and China's path of development, as well as their impacts on the current global landscape.

During the forum, some of the overseas scholars, including winners of the 2023 Award for Distinguished Contributions to China Studies, shared their personal China experiences, observations, and understandings of Chinese civilization and China's path with the Global Times.

These "China hands" are witnesses to China's modernization and social development, and play an important role as bridges that link China and the world, observers told the Global Times on Monday.

Witnesses and bridges

The forum announced the winners of the 2023 Award for Distinguished Contributions to China Studies on November 24. They included Timothy Brook, professor emeritus at Department of History, University of British Columbia, Baik Young-seo, professor emeritus at Yonsei University, and Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.
Brook and Baik participated in the in-person forum in Shanghai. At an interview on November 23, Brook said that Shanghai "makes him jump." "The Shanghai of today is completely different from that of the 1970s," he told the media in fluent Putonghua. "The city reminds me of New York when I look out of my hotel at the Bund."

Shanghai was one of the starting places that sparked Brook's relationship with China. In 1974, then 23-year-old Brook studied ancient Chinese history and literature at Fudan University as one of the earliest young Canadians to come to China as exchange students. At Fudan, he developed a keen interest in China's Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), and later started his decades of research in Chinese history, particularly into the Ming Dynasty history.

At the forum venue by the Huangpu River, Brook said although he has visited Shanghai many times over the years, he is quite impressed by the development of China's most modernized metropolis during each visit. "I found that Shanghai has 'grown up' to a degree that I've never seen before," he said, as if describing an old friend.

Brook is hailed as one of the best storytellers among North American historians. His many books focusing on China during the period of the Ming Dynasty, such as The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China, open a window for international readers to learn more about Chinese history and civilization.

"I keep writing books about China in order to increase the outside world's understanding of China," Brook told the Global Times.

Brook is among the expanding pool of international scholars in China studies who have, in recent decades, personally experienced China's rapid path to development.
Rachel Murphy, who prefers to go by her Chinese name "Rui Xue (auspicious snow in a literal translation)" in China, was a guest speaker at the forum. As a Chinese Development and Society professor at the University of Oxford and former president of the British Association for Chinese Studies, she has been engaged in China-related research, exploring China's social and cultural changes caused by urbanization, educational development, demographic transition, and state policies.

During the last 20 years, Murphy has travelled to many villages, towns, and cities across China. Her long-term fieldwork makes her an old "China hand."

Murphy marveled at China's tremendous development, especially in the countryside. "China's urbanization is progressing very fast," she told the Global Times during the forum. "The book I wrote [about rural China] before is out of date now."

Murphy shared that a week ahead of the forum, she visited several villages in Anhui Provinces, where she had been to a few years before. She was surprised by the great changes in communication in rural China.

Wi-Fi availability is now commonplace in many villages, enabling "left-behind" children to stay in contact with their migrant worker parents through frequent video calls, said Murphy. She was surprised to see many elderly women like to share their rural lives on Douyin (the Chinese version of TikTok).

"The speed of technological changes [in China] is truly amazing," Murphy said in Putonghua. "Rural areas included, the ubiquitous nature of 'connection' [across China] is a remarkable achievement."

Among the China studies scholars who attended the forum in Shanghai, Michael Crook, a Chinese Government Friendship Award winner, is a familiar "China hand" to many Chinese people.

Crook's family has been profoundly and closely connected to China. Six generations of his family have worked and lived in China. Born and raised in Beijing, Crook has devoted decades to education in China. Now he teaches children from expatriate families in Beijing Chinese history and culture, acting as a bridge between people in China and the West, especially among the younger generation.

During the forum, Crook told Chinese media that he believes Chinese and Western cultures have their own merits. "They can learn from each other," he said.

A path worthy of reference

Crook was a guest speaker at a sub-forum being held during the Shanghai Forum on November 24. The theme of the sub-forum was "Explorations: Chinese Modernization and China's Path."

Under this theme, many participants of the sub-forum shared their understanding of China's path to modernization, and some highlights of China's path worthy of reference for other countries.

China is a good example of integrating its own development with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNDGs), said economist Ranee Jayamaha, lead consultant for the South Asia-World Bank Group.

She offered how China has launched the Initiative for Belt and Road Partnership on Green Development together with 31 countries, and closely aligned the initiative with the needs of global green development by investing in renewable energy and adopting comprehensive pollution reduction measures as an example.

This is a good story of China's success in positively influencing world development, Jayamaha commented.

Crook mentioned China's ethnic policies, which he thinks can be referenced by multi-ethnic countries.

In a speech he delivered at the sub-forum, Crook recalled his visit to a school in China's Xizang Autonomous Region in May. The school teaches both Putonghua and Tibetan, and entirely permissible for the latter to be spoken in class. The small case shows China respects and supports its ethnic minorities at the national level, said Crook.

With China's rise and its growing international influence, many countries, especially those in the Global South, are interested in Chine's development, and are looking forward to learning from China's experiences, many attendees of the forum told the Global Times.

And these contemporary "China hands" are making efforts to know more about China, exploring China's development path and sharing their observations and understandings with the world.

China is on a multi-dimensional path of development, Josette Altmann-Borbón, secretary general of Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences, said in a speech delivered at the forum's opening ceremony on November 24.

We should fully understand the important role China plays on the global stage, she noted.

Despite the large geographical distance between China and the Latin America and Caribbean regions, more regional countries have shown increased enthusiasm at exploring opportunities in the Chinese market during the sixth China International Import Expo (CIIE), with the China-Latin America trade volume hitting a record high of $485.8 billion in 2022. 

Companies from Latin American and Caribbean countries displayed their products at the expo, and expressed high hopes in the Chinese market and the possibility of attracting more investment from China, the Global Times learned. 

Honduras, a Central American country that established diplomatic relations with China more than half a year ago, joined the "circle of friends" of the CIIE for the first time and became one of the main guests of honor of the national exhibition.

More than 40 Honduran enterprises in coffee, cigar, red wine, seafood, and other characteristically Honduran industries participated in the Expo, alongside those in tourism, investment, and other fields. The Honduran government is also working to introduce quality products such as cigars, melons, and cocoa into the Chinese market, according to media reports. 

As an "old friend" of the CIIE, Colombia has participated in several events in the past. Since the first session of the CIIE, the country has been an active participant and expressed their confidence in the great opportunities to be found in the Chinese market. Many of Colombia's products have also been recognized and favored by Chinese consumers.

Cuba is also a Latin American country that has participated, for six consecutive years, in the CIIE, which is considered to be a platform to further consolidate the close economic ties and unbreakable friendship between the two countries and enhance bilateral economic ties, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz told the Global Times in an exclusive interview recently. 

Cuba and China have taken advantage of the CIIE to sign a number of cooperation agreements, including in biotechnology and other fields. In addition, Cuba is seeking to promote local products such as cigars and rum to Chinese consumers.

Ahead of the CIIE, the Chinese and Latin American business communities jointly released the "China-LAC Business Cooperation Beijing Initiative," which aims to promote cooperation in the digital economy, agriculture, culture and tourism, as well as the green economy. The initiative aims to build a China-LAC community with a shared future, including promoting digital economic development, advancing agricultural cooperation, enhancing tourism and cultural exchanges, and exploring the green economy.

Building momentum toward COP28, a seminar co-organized by the United Nations in China and the Embassy of Spain, with the support of the Delegation of the European Union, was held on Tuesday at the UNICEF Compound, Beijing. 

The seminar aimed to mediate negotiations and share a preview of China's strategic line at COP28, and spearhead detailed discussions both on China's position and priorities for the upcoming COP28, along with member states and other stakeholders' expectations with a view to advance dialogue in the lead up to COP28.  

Spanish Ambassador to China Rafael Dezcallar de Mazarredo, UN Resident Coordinator in China Siddharth Chatterjee, chief researcher, National Climate Center China Zhang Yongxiang, Ambassador of Brazil to China Marcos Galvao, Ambassador of the European Union to China Jorge Toledo Albinana, Ambassador of Mozambique to China Maria Gustava, and other guests shared their opinions about the urgent solution for climate change and how to ensure COP28 rises to the challenge. 

The Spanish Ambassador stressed that climate change is threatening the very existence of life on earth and people should work together and rise to the challenge. 

"We want to work together with China. We can contribute with our experience on issues such as technological cooperation, energy market reform, energy transition (with its essential components of energy security and emissions neutrality), and energy efficiency. We are open to increase our cooperation in all fields," he told the Global Times and expressed his sincere cooperation willingness with China in dealing with climate change. 

The final objective of the seminar was for all parties to have a greater level of understanding on each other's positions in advance of COP28, a shared understanding of the importance of the Global Stocktake at COP28, and generate ideas on how to develop paths that can lead to ambitious agreements and actions at COP28.

Currently, some observers assert that China's economic growth has peaked, drawing parallels to Japan's situation in the 1990s. This implies that China may face a 30-year stagnation, potentially missing the opportunity to surpass the size of the US economy. However, this perspective is a misconception, as it interprets China's cyclical adjustments as indicative of a long-term economic downturn.

In reality, the Chinese government is working toward multiple objectives simultaneously, with economic growth rate being just one of them. While China has set lower goal of economic growth compared with the past, this shift has also created more opportunities to advance other goals. China's economic growth continues to hold significant potential.

China's potential economic growth rate is still estimated to be around 5.5 percent, if not higher. This is attributed to China's high current savings rate, which stands at 45 percent of its GDP. In essence, this substantial savings volume, equivalent to 45 percent of its GDP, will stimulate investment and subsequently fuel growth.

While there is ample opportunity for infrastructure investment in China, domestic investment focus extends beyond just infrastructure. The need for infrastructure improvement in cities located in the central and western regions highlights the room and potential for further infrastructure investments growth.

China is currently increasing its investments in labor productivity. A new concept known as "new quality productive forces" has emerged in China. By fostering these new quality productive forces, there is potential to enhance total factor productivity and enhance the efficiency of overall economic development. This trend partly accounts for the decrease in foreign investment in China, as the country's capital is currently abundant.

In terms of China's savings and consumption, there are also misconceptions. A pivotal moment occurred in 2010. Prior to this year, China experienced a rapid increase in its savings rate, partially attributed to rising incomes. Additionally, excessive exports contributed to significant savings accumulation among the residents, resulting in a higher savings rate and a decline in the consumption ratio.

However, since 2010, the proportion of consumption has actually increased significantly, driven by a strong preference for spending among the population. In fact, between 2010 and 2019, consumption growth in China surpassed income growth over the nine-year period, resulting in a notable increase in the contribution of consumption to the Chinese economy.

Throughout the three-year span of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth has slowed, at the same time, the pace of consumer spending growth also slowed. Nevertheless, in 2023, consumption growth contributed to 82 percent of the total GDP growth, marking a notably high proportion. It is imperative to remain patient concerning the expansion of consumption in China.

There is a misconception that China lacks consumption at present. In my opinion, the current issue in China is more related to investment rather than consumption. Examining China's economic performance last year, weak exports have had a certain impact, but another contributing factor is the insufficient investment. The government is implementing measures to boost investment, which is expected to spur economic growth.

China's impressive progress in technology is noteworthy. Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EV), and renewable energy are moving forward rapidly. During a recent visit to iFlytek in Hefei, East China's Anhui Province, I observed their highly advanced AI model development, which is nearing the level of the ChatGPT model introduced just six months ago.

In the realm of AI applications, China has surged ahead of many countries and even outpaced the US in certain domains. Intelligent connected vehicles serve as a prime example of this advancement. This year, China plans to expand real world testing for autonomous driving systems. Currently, these systems are limited to specific areas. While some regions in the US are just beginning road trials, China is poised to expand its autonomous driving testing this year. This signifies a crucial year for China's intelligent connected vehicles and for the worldwide advancement of this technology.

In addition to strengthening its advantages in the aforementioned technological fields, China is also at the forefront in various areas. When it comes to cutting-edge technologies for the future, China leads in fields like quantum computing, quantum communication, fusion technology, and more.

I anticipate that the next three decades will be the most exhilarating period in China's history. The last time China held a prominent position as a global technology leader was during the Song Dynasty about a thousand years ago. I am confident that in the next thirty years, China will once again ascend to the peak of global technological advancement.

The article was compiled from a speech of Yao Yang, economist and Boya chair professor at Peking University, at the Ambassador Round Table Dialogue on "China's Economic Outlook" in Beijing on Friday.

China is expected to introduce new evaluation criteria for three centrally-administered auto companies, reported Economic Observer on Saturday, a move that aims to encourage investment and mergers and accelerate the companies’ development in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector.

The new evaluation criteria for the three centrally-administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) will include a range of new indicators such as market share, profit structure, technological innovation, and safety production, as per the Economic Observer report.

The three major central auto SOEs are FAW Group, Changan Automobile and Dongfeng Motor Corporation Ltd., all of which are early players in the Chinese NEV sector but have not shown significant growth in recent years. 

In 2023, the three centrally-administered auto SOEs made significant strides by investing nearly 36 billion yuan into NEVs ($5 billion), accounting for over 60 percent of their total investment, Gou Ping, vice chairman of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), said on Saturday. 

While centrally-administered auto SOEs possess considerable technological reserves in the NEV domain, cautious investment strategies due to regulatory and other factors have led to them missing out on opportunities resulting from intense market competition, the Economic Observer report said, citing an unnamed insider from the SOEs.

During the recently concluded two sessions, Zhang Yuzhuo, the head of SASAC, stated that SOEs are not developing fast enough in the NEV area and policies would be adjusted for separate assessments of the three centrally-administered auto SOEs.

Experts have pointed out that the existing evaluation criteria for SOEs do not fit the rapidly evolving NEV industry, which requires fast-paced iterations of vehicles and core components. Misalignment has reportedly dampened the investment enthusiasm of these companies, causing them to miss development opportunities, as per the Economic Observer.

The three centrally-administered auto SOEs have set ambitious targets for 2024, with FAW Group and Changan Automobile aiming to achieve NEV sales of 500,000 and 750,000 units, respectively, while Dongfeng Motor Corporation Ltd. plans to fully electrify its leading passenger car brands this year and aims to exceed 1 million units in NEV sales by 2025.

Gou said on Saturday that the centrally-administered auto SOEs will play to heir advantages, utilize their industrial resources and take a correct view toward the gaps and shortcomings in terms of their development in the NEV sector to accelerate transformation.

An SASAC official revealed that in addition to the NEV sector, SASAC intends to develop multi-dimensional evaluation indicators for several strategic emerging industries to promote their development, Economic Observer reported.

A recent theory claiming that a surge in China's exports has put "jobs around the world in jeopardy" reached its culmination after Chinese official data revealed that China's exports, measured in yuan terms, rose 10.3 percent year-on-year in January and February. Regardless of whether or not China's exports increase, Western media outlets can always find ways to smear China's economy. It seems they have largely lost the ability to objectively assess China's economic performance.

Among the discussions surrounding how the Chinese economy performs, its exports have become a focus of media attention. As an interesting comparison, the New York Times published an article in August 2023 criticizing the Chinese economy, stating that a decline in China's exports can be seen as a major indicator of a "stalling economy," which poses alarming risks for economies around the planet. 

However, on Tuesday - only several months later - the very newspaper published another article that once again criticized China, this time claiming an increase in China's exports has put jobs around the world in jeopardy. It's ironic that China's exports, no matter whether they increase or decline, can be used as an excuse to attack and smear the Chinese economy.

Vacillating between the "China collapse" theory and the "China threat" theory, some Westerners say China's expansion in the exports of steel, cars, consumer electronics and solar panels is coming partly at other countries' expense, stealing their manufacturing jobs. Nevertheless, these same people who formerly rebuked China because its exports were not strong enough said that a slowdown in China's economy would hurt, rather than help, the rest of the world. 

Combining the rhetoric of the "China collapse" theory and "China threat" theory confuses many people. So, what exactly does China's economy look like?

It is not surprising that China's export sectors experienced a hard time last year in the face of multiple challenges such as the sluggish external demand, the rise of trade protectionism in the West and the "decoupling" maneuver of the US, but, if people look at the whole picture, official data showed that China's exports, measured in yuan terms, rose 0.6 percent year-on-year in 2023. There is no sign of a systemic risk in China's trade. What has collapsed is the "China collapse" theory, not China's export-oriented sectors.

China's merchandise trade in the first two months of 2024 hit a record high of 6.61 trillion yuan ($919 billion), up 8.7 percent year-on-year, beating forecasts and signaling a good start to the new year. Exports rose 10.3 percent to 3.75 trillion yuan while imports were up 6.7 percent to 2.86 trillion yuan.

With a rebound in China's exports, Western media and politicians seem to have hyped up a new round of the "China threat" theory. That stems from the fear of a rise in China's strength, because some companies in Western countries are concerned that competitors from China may seize their vested interests.

However, it is unfair to protect backward production capacity in some Western countries. A most likely consequence is that consumers have to accept higher prices. In addition, the industrialization process will also slow down.

According to UN standards, traded goods can be classified into three categories: capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods. China is a major player in intermediate goods trade. Official data show China has been the world's largest exporter of intermediate goods for 12 consecutive years. In 2023, the import and export of intermediate goods reached 25.53 trillion yuan, accounting for 61.1 percent of China's foreign trade value.

Intermediate goods include raw materials, semi-finished products and components. As China pursues modernization through high-quality development, innovation driven by sci-tech progress has become a new growth engine for the country's economy. 

Now, the country exports more and more high value-added industrial products, including core components and electronics parts, to other countries in the global supply chains. At a time when the restructuring of the global industry chain seems to have accelerated, China's exports of intermediate products have played a positive role in stabilizing the global industrial chain.

Some countries in Asia are in a stage of rapid industrialization. Before these countries establish complete industrial chains, their demand for imported intermediate products is huge. China and these countries have the potential to further strengthen cooperation. From the perspective of these countries, China's exports of intermediate goods represent opportunities for further industrialization rather than threats to their manufacturing jobs.

The "China threat" theory has turned into a threat to the global economy and its industrialization process. However, as long as we combine the interests of the Chinese economy with common interests of the world, the "China threat" theory would end up becoming a "China opportunity" theory.

China and Australia are making efforts to address mutual concerns through dialogue and consultation, which will help improve the momentum in bilateral relations, Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a routine press conference on Wednesday.

Wang made the remarks in response to a media inquiry on whether the Chinese government is to lift tariffs on Australian wine. Recently, Australian officials and media outlets have claimed that China is prepared to remove the import tax.

"What I can tell you is that for some time, China and Australia have engaged in dialogue and consultation to address each other's concerns properly and jointly worked to realize a momentum of improvement and growth in the bilateral relations," Wang said.

"I'd refer you to competent authorities for your specific questions," the spokesperson said.

China stands ready to continue stepping up dialogue and cooperation with Australia under the principles of mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit and seeking common ground while shelving differences, so as to promote the steady and sound growth of China-Australia relations, Wang noted.

China and Australia are jointly addressing the wine dispute, with both sides approaching the matter with a candid and pragmatic attitude, Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Center of East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

The eagerness from the Australian side underscores the importance of the Chinese market as a major destination for the Australia's exports. Despite attempts by some players in the Australian wine industry to explore alternative markets, none can match the scale and growth speed of China, Chen said.

There is a strong anticipation that issues, including Australian lobster imports, could be resolved soon, as long as the Australian side avoids politicization of trade issues, Chen noted.

In 2019, Australian wine dominated China's market with a 35.54 percent share, surpassing France and securing the largest market share, according to media reports. However, this position was compromised following the deteriorating bilateral relations.

The previous market share of Australian wine in China was mostly taken over by wines from France, Chile and Italy.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) began reviewing the anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Australian wine from November 30, 2023. The tariff on Australian wine was first levied on March 28, 2021.

Australian government officials and media outlets have frequently brought the issue up, indicating the great eagerness of Australian winemakers to return to the Chinese market.

Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Sky News on Sunday that he was hopeful China would lift tariffs on Australian wine once a review is completed by the end of March, and progress is also being made on exporting lobsters to China, Reuters reported.

In a response to Farrell's statement, Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian said at an event on Monday that China's review of tariffs on Australian wine is progressing well, but Xiao did not confirm that the dispute would be resolved this month, according to Reuters.

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), an Australian global winemaker, said in a stock exchange filing on Tuesday that it has been advised that the MOFCOM has released an interim draft determination which proposes the removal of current tariffs China imposed on Australian wine imports.

The draft is not a final determination, TWE said, extending its anticipation that a final determination would be released in the coming weeks.

The frequent and active interactions of the Chinese and Australian officials also served as a crucial positive sign that more trade disputes would be resolved.

On February 26, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Don Farrell, calling for strengthened cooperation in China's joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The meeting marked a new attempt to build closer bilateral trade ties.

Apart from resolving traditional trade disputes, Chen expressed his optimism that the China-Australia relationship has room for further advancement in much broader areas, highlighting the potential in burgeoning fields such as clean energy and the digital economy.

Additionally, Chen noted the importance of Australia adopting an open and sincere attitude toward Chinese investment, without succumbing to politically driven motivations influenced by the US over the so-called national security reasons. This open and sincere attitude is crucial for fostering a healthier and more sustainable future in bilateral relations, said Chen.

China's central government has unveiled this year's GDP growth target, at about 5 percent, on par with last year's rate. The target has made market investors rejoice, giving them higher confidence in an across-the-board revival of China-related equities and other assets in the coming months. As expected, the country's A-share market has held on to strong gains in the past two weeks of robust trading.

But not all are elated with China's growth target. A good number of Western politicians and media pundits have claimed it is "too aggressive and lofty," a goal that may not be pulled off. Some of them are annoyed and disgruntled with China's resolve, and have started to curse the Chinese economy, predicting it will "capsize" and never close the current gap with the GDP of the US in nominal terms.

It's laughable and mean to diminish and denigrate others' economies. Last year, amid the Western media chorus of "China's economic collapse," the country's GDP expanded by 5.2 percent over a year earlier, with yearly added output value of more than 6 trillion yuan ($835 billion). 

Compared with 2023, when China had just bid goodbye to the protracted and distressing three-year pandemic, there are better and riper conditions now to pursue a growth rate of about 5 percent in 2024. The lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been largely eliminated, and nearly all the fundamentals of the economy have been rehabilitated and shored up, which paves the way for a possible takeoff this year. 

The central government is ready to fuel the economy in 2024 with a volley of growth-reinforcing stimulus policies, to be whipped up by a new mandate - brewing new quality productive forces to help build a stronger and greater country. 

China is currently leading in the global endeavor in green and renewable energy, in electric vehicle and high-end battery development, in high-speed mobile telecom networks and railway roll-outs, in autonomous driving, deep space, modern robotics, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other advanced sectors of information technology research and development. Naturally and consequentially, the country will be a front-runner in finding and creating new quality productive forces.

During a press conference held at the sidelines of the second session of the 14th National People's Congress recently, China's leading economic planners and policymakers discussed the magnitude of macro stimulus and overall policy direction for this year and beyond. 

Collectively, officials displayed elevated confidence before global audiences that they are upbeat about realizing this year's growth targets, despite facing worldwide volatility including wars, conflicts, rising economic protectionism and technology isolation. 

As to whether the GDP growth target of 5 percent is attainable, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said it was set   following the central government's comprehensive assessment, "taking into account current and long-term needs and possibilities" and the target is "a positive goal reachable with a jump," meaning through earnest hard work. 

Lan Fo'an, the finance minister, and Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, pledged more fiscal and monetary policy support to boost the economic revival. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao announced plans for a large-scale national trade-in event this year, aiming at replacing outdated manufacturing equipment, worn-out cars and home appliances to propel domestic consumption.

Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, vowed to significantly tighten capital market oversight to prevent irrational volatility.

Fiscally, China plans to issue an additional 3.9 trillion yuan in local government bonds in 2024 to support local government coffers, providing more financial resources for infrastructure construction and rural revitalization, including an initiative to dole out more welfare benefits to elderly rural residents. 

The central government will issue ultra-long special treasury bonds starting this year and over each of the next several years to ramp up fiscal stimulus to support overall economic growth. 

Monetarily, the central bank said it still has sufficient policy room in its toolbox. In contrast to other major economies, China isn't burdened by high inflation, which enables the central bank to maintain a lower interest rate policy and provide ample market liquidity. This will benefit Chinese business expansion, aid consumer spending and ratchet up overall economic activity in 2024. 

Last month, the central bank reduced the benchmark five-year interest rate by 25 basis points. This move aims to ease the long-term burden on enterprises and is expected to significantly benefit the real estate sector, as the mortgage rates were lowered accordingly. 

The economy has gotten off to a very strong start, as evidenced by steadily rising foreign trade. In the first two months, China's merchandise exports rose 10.3 percent year-on-year. 

Meanwhile, the number of tourists who ventured out during the eight-day Chinese Lunar New Year holidays marked a staggering increase of 19 percent compared with the pre-pandemic number in 2019. 

The upbeat figures show China's economic activity is rapidly gaining pace. With the government's enhanced fiscal and monetary stimulus, backed up by an improving stock market performance, the momentum for growth will accumulate and consistently build. 

Provided China continues to focus on tech innovation, foster new quality productive forces and stick to the opening-up policy, typically helping its Belt and Road Initiative partners and the Global South to develop and prosper, the central government's development blueprint for 2035 - when GDP is to double from the 2020 level - isn't out of reach at all.